Quantifying
Conviction.
Bespoke indices derived from market-implied probabilities around real-world events.
Built for research teams that demand auditability, provenance, and institutional-grade methodology.
What is a Belief Index?
Prediction Market Prices
Prediction markets trade contracts on real-world outcomes. Prices reflect the market's implied probability of an event occurring.
Rules-Based Index Methodology
We curate and weight related outcome markets under a documented methodology to represent a specific class of risk.
A Transparent Time Series
The result is a continuously updated index that can be charted, decomposed, and used in analysis.
The Hedging Gap in Modern Portfolios
Institutional portfolios face growing exposure to risks that are difficult to hedge directly:
- Discontinuous outcomes: wars, elections, disasters, policy shifts
- Proxy dependence: oil, equities, FX, and volatility react after events occur
- Correlation spikes: regime changes impact multiple assets at once
Traditional hedges capture second-order price effects.
Belief Systems indices measure first-order outcome risk.
How Institutions Use Belief Indices
Hedging Overlays
- Insurance & reinsuranceHedge catastrophe season exposure using disaster-risk indices as dynamic overlays
- Macro fundsHedge geopolitical tail risk without relying on commodity or defense-equity proxies
- Asset owners & corporatesHedge election-driven policy risk alongside core portfolios
Risk Management
- Stress testingInputs into stress testing, scenario analysis, and risk dashboards
- Early-warning indicatorsSignals for regime change and tail-risk monitoring
Portfolio Construction
- Pair tradesRisk-on assets plus uncertainty hedges
- Factor exposureExpress stability versus disruption as a distinct risk factor
Why Market-Implied Probabilities Matter
Direct
Tracks the event itself, not a proxy
Adaptive
Updates continuously as information changes
Transparent
Components and weights are observable and auditable
Orthogonal
Captures risks poorly explained by traditional asset classes
Belief Indices
View all indices →Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of Democratic control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Democratic-aligned scenarios, specifically Democratic control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Republican control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Democratic legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Democratic strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of Republican control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Republican-aligned scenarios, specifically Republican control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Democratic control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Republican legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Republican strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
Belief U.S. Presidential Election Democratic Expectations 2028 Index
This index measures market-implied expectations of a Democratic victory in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of presidential outcome markets that resolve favorably under Democratic-aligned scenarios, including individual candidate victories and party-level outcomes, while offsetting exposure to Republican-aligned outcomes. By synthesizing probabilities across multiple candidates and pathways, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Democratic electoral prospects rather than the likelihood of any single nominee prevailing. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Democratic strength as political developments, candidate dynamics, polling, fundraising, and macro-political conditions evolve through the election cycle.
An Index and Data Provider
Belief Systems is not an exchange and does not facilitate wagering. We publish indices and related research for institutional evaluation and analysis.
Our indices are:
- Rules-based and documented
- Decomposable into underlying components
- Designed for risk transfer, signaling, and analytics
Make Uncertainty Measurable
As uncertainty becomes a dominant macro variable, institutions need tools that price it explicitly—not indirectly.
Belief Systems enables uncertainty to become measurable, monitorable, and hedgeable.