Independent of venues
Belief Systems does not operate a trading venue or make markets.
The measurement layer for prediction markets
Prediction markets have prices.
Institutions need measurements.
Independent benchmarks and forward volatility for event risk.
The measurement layer
Two measurements. One clearer view of event risk.
Belief Indices establish where expectations stand. Belief Volatility measures how far those expectations may move. Both are live, governed, and built for institutional use – and the next measurements are published only when they clear a public launch gate.
Live product familiesWhat the world believes – and how firmly
BenchmarksLive
Belief Indices
What is the market saying?
Rules-based benchmarks of expectations around elections, policy, and conflict.
Explore live productVolatilityLive
Forward Belief Volatility
How far might expectations move?
A forward-looking measure of movement, quoted in probability points.
Explore live productNextThe measurements ahead – same discipline, new questions
Next
Reference pricing
What is the price, across venues?
Next
Market quality
Which markets can I trust?
Next
New index families
What else can be measured?
Point in time
Measurements are recorded as published. History is never silently rewritten.
Publicly governed
Methodology changes are prospective, revisions are labeled, and actions are logged.
Methodology ↗Benchmark governance ↗Governance log ↗Research on SSRN · Covered by Risk.net · Publishing since January 2026
Published now
Live measurements.
Event-risk benchmarks and forward volatility, recorded point in time under public rules.
01 · BenchmarksLive family
Belief Indices
Where expectations stand.
02 · Forward volatilityLive family
Belief Volatility
How far expectations may move.
Midterms Uncertainty Index
35.5 probability points
Estimated movement over the next 30 days.
Historical-clock forecast · 21% release share
Index figures show percentage movement, not raw levels. Data may be delayed.
A familiar institutional pattern
Markets become useful when their signals become measurable.
A common measurement gives professionals something they can compare across time, place into a model, and defend in a decision process.
MarketRaw signalCommon measurementWhat it makes possible
EquitiesRaw signalIndividual stock pricesCommon measurementBroad-market indicesWhat it makes possibleMandates, attribution, passive products
CreditRaw signalBond and CDS pricesCommon measurementCredit indicesWhat it makes possiblePortfolio hedging and relative value
VolatilityRaw signalOption pricesCommon measurementVIXWhat it makes possibleA common language for market uncertainty
CryptoRaw signalFragmented venue pricesCommon measurementBenchmark ratesWhat it makes possibleRegulated futures and spot ETFs
Event riskRaw signalPrediction-market pricesCommon measurementBelief Indices + Belief VolatilityWhat it makes possibleComparable research, risk limits, product design
Built for institutional work
View all use cases →One layer. Four jobs.
Risk & Strategy
Put a defensible event-risk number in the committee deck.
See the workflow →Quant Research
Test signals against point-in-time history, without hindsight.
See the workflow →Platforms
Distribute finished event-risk data with methodology attached.
See the workflow →Product Issuers
Put an independent benchmark beneath a financial product.
See the workflow →Make event risk measurable
Start with the live measurements.
Explore the published products, or speak with us about institutional data, redistribution, and benchmark licensing.