Belief Systems

Belief Indices

Prediction markets price individual outcomes. Belief Indices show where conviction stands across an entire theme.

Each index aggregates a curated set of prediction markets under a documented, rules-based methodology for politics, geopolitics, policy, and macro uncertainty.

Methodology ↗Request index →

Available Indices

Click any index to view details. Click column headers to sort.

AIACCELBelief Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Expectations IndexJun 7, 2026125.86+0.35%+4.94%+31.15%+25.86%
CONFLICTBelief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations IndexApr 24, 202636.10+2.11%+1.28%+5.59%-63.90%
DGTDWNBelief Global Digital Asset Underperformance Expectations IndexApr 25, 202677.27+0.06%+2.73%-19.87%-22.73%
DGTUPBelief Global Digital Asset Appreciation Expectations IndexApr 25, 2026129.23+0.45%-0.70%+18.65%+29.23%
MIDD26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 2026103.73-0.36%+0.36%+6.92%+3.73%
MIDR26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 202692.42+0.83%-0.81%-12.86%-7.58%
PEACEBelief Global Peace Expectations IndexApr 24, 2026124.38-0.99%-0.27%+0.97%+24.38%
PRESD28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Democratic Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 2026100.31+0.14%-0.61%-0.99%+0.31%
PRESR28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 202699.73-0.13%+0.56%+0.91%-0.27%
USDOVEBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 202640.01+4.33%+12.57%+0.97%-59.99%
USHAWKBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 2026132.53-3.01%-8.57%+3.63%+32.53%
USLATINT26Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 202637.42+0.42%+9.84%-14.44%-62.58%
USLATSQ26Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 2026129.80-0.06%-1.22%+2.37%+29.80%
Green = positive returnRed = negative return- = insufficient data