Belief Systems

Indices

Indices that price event risk in real time.

Each one aggregates a curated set of prediction markets under a documented methodology – politics, geopolitics, policy, and macro uncertainty.

01

Raw Event Data

Prediction markets price the probability of specific outcomes.

02

Index Methodology

We curate and weight markets to represent a specific event risk theme.

03

Index Data

The output is a transparent, interpretable time series for analysis.

Learn about our methodology→Request custom index→

Available Indices

Click any index to view details. Click column headers to sort.

CONFLICTBelief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations IndexApr 24, 202628.36+1.20%-2.86%-69.66%-71.64%
DGTDWNBelief Global Digital Asset Underperformance Expectations IndexApr 25, 2026104.52+0.55%+1.99%+4.27%+4.52%
DGTUPBelief Global Digital Asset Appreciation Expectations IndexApr 25, 202692.57-0.85%-3.50%-7.06%-7.43%
MIDD26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 202695.90+0.78%+0.00%-4.81%-4.10%
MIDR26Belief U.S. Legislative Control Republican Expectations 2026 IndexMar 19, 2026108.33-1.38%+0.00%+10.00%+8.33%
PEACEBelief Global Peace Expectations IndexApr 24, 2026129.62+0.34%+0.70%+26.28%+29.62%
PRESD28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Democratic Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 2026101.59+0.07%-0.23%-0.71%+1.59%
PRESR28Belief U.S. Presidential Election Republican Expectations 2028 IndexJan 17, 202698.58-0.06%+0.22%+0.66%-1.42%
USDOVEBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Dovish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 202668.59-1.59%-5.96%-30.28%-31.41%
USHAWKBelief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Expectations IndexMay 2, 2026113.81+0.43%+1.74%+13.01%+13.81%
USLATINT26Belief U.S. Latin American Intervention Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 202684.41-2.36%-3.03%-8.55%-15.59%
USLATSQ26Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 IndexApr 25, 2026107.42+0.95%+1.18%+3.62%+7.42%
Green = positive returnRed = negative return- = insufficient data