Belief Systems
Event-risk data

Event-risk data,delivered three ways.

As-published history of expectations, volatility, and composition changes – ready for research, risk monitoring, and evidence another reader can reproduce.

Explore the record →Get accessRead the docs →

Point-in-time history. Published methodology. Attribution ready.

A changing risk, held in timeAs published
ObserveCompareReproduce
Delivery

Use it where the work happens

One account, one key, and three delivery choices. Pick the one that fits the task.

01For code

Data API

Bring current and recent history into notebooks, models, dashboards, and internal systems.

API quickstart →
02For assistants

MCP server

Let an AI assistant inspect series, compare periods, and retrieve citation guidance in the conversation.

MCP setup →
03For durable work

Snapshot files

Keep dated CSVs with checksums, methodology, and a permanent archive page for the record you used.

Browse the files →
Published data

Inspect the record yourself

Levels, volatility, compositions, and changes – as published, dated, and permanent. See the files before you create an account.

Snapshot
2026-08-18
Schema
1.2
Series
14
History begins
2026-01-17

Belief Index

Every series ships levels, versioned compositions, and a reconstitution file carrying the chain-link arithmetic.

Complete index bundle · 985 KB

Series 1–5 of 13

Series 1–5 of 13

Belief Volatility

Every series ships its readings, the per-outcome detail behind them, and the attribution of each published move.

Complete volatility bundle · 23 KB

1 series

Data dictionaryMarkdown · 47 KBSeries referenceCSV · 3 KBCitation metadataCFF · 855 BThe dated archivePublic · citable

As-published rows are never rewritten: a correction appears as a labeled changelog entry, and generation fails outright if a historical row differs from the previous snapshot. Every file carries a SHA-256 in the manifest, and each dated snapshot keeps its own permanent URL.

Access

Start with the public record

Evaluation, research, and internal analytics are free. Broader rights have a clear route.

01Free account

Evaluate the data

Snapshot history since inception, recent API history, and MCP under one limited grant. Work email and attribution required.

60 requests/minute · 2,000/day · three active keys

02Index Services

Ship it in production

Production rights, redistribution, index-linked products, a full-fidelity feed, and an SLA run through a license.

Index Services →
03Academic research

Go deeper by agreement

Per-window constituent detail and custom extracts are available for non-commercial academic research.

Research program →

The binding terms govern every channel. Keys are personal; redistribution and production use require a license. Read the Terms of Service. The data is informational, reflects theoretical benchmark values rather than execution prices, and is not investment advice.

Put the record to work

Inspect the published files, then connect the same data to the workflow that needs it.

Get accessRead the docs →