Event risk briefIC / 07.30
SOURCEBelief Index · methodology v1
01
Committee deck
A thematic series, source line, and methodology reference that another reader can verify.
For risk & macro strategy teams
Turn event risk into a committee-grade input.
For elections, conflict, and policy – the risks that move portfolios without a clean instrument to quote.
Free to evaluate. No procurement process to start.
Committee recordCurrent
Event-risk benchmark
One continuous, citable series for the theme under review.
✓Timestamped
✓Quality-flagged
✓Methodology-linked
The moment of need
“What probability is the market assigning to this event?”
01
Without a benchmark
Search contracts. Choose one. Screenshot it. Explain the choice.
02
With a benchmark
Pull one thematic series with a published methodology and timestamp.
03
What changes
The discussion moves from sourcing the number to managing the risk.
How it becomes citable
From fragmented contracts to one governed record.
Public rules turn changing event contracts into a stable thematic series, with the evidence needed to understand how it was produced.
Evidence pipelinePublishing
Inputs
Election contractsLIVE
Conflict contractsLIVE
Policy contractsLIVE
Different expiries, liquidity, and contract language.
Public rulebook
01Selection screens
02Liquidity weighting
03Chain-linking
Judgment is set in public, then applied consistently.
Committee record
Event-risk benchmark
Continuous thematic series
✓As-published history
✓Freshness state
✓Methodology version
Fits the work already happening
One governed series. Three institutional artifacts.
The index is not another destination to monitor. It is a source that drops into the deck, dashboard, or note your team already owns.
Event-risk monitor
30-MIN CADENCEFRESH
02
Risk dashboard
Election, conflict, and policy expectations beside the market and exposure data you already track.
Macro note
The market repriced the event – not the cycle.
Source: Belief Systems
03
Client or strategy note
One attributable benchmark per theme, with a stable history for the next update.
The reliance layer
The number is public. The evidence around it is the product.
A benchmark earns its place in a committee pack by making its construction and failure states inspectable.
01
A record you can reproduce
Published compositions, weights, and chain-link arithmetic make every aggregate level independently checkable.
02
A history that stays put
As-published values are not silently rewritten. Corrections appear as new, labeled records.
03
Data quality in the open
Staleness and integrity states are carried with the series. Gaps are disclosed, not smoothed away.
04
A rulebook with a date
Methodology changes are versioned, dated, and applied prospectively.
13
Live indices
53,000+
Half-hourly observations
30 min
Valuation cadence
Jan 2026
Publishing since
Methodology paper on SSRN ↗Published reconstitution logs
90-day evaluation
Bring one event-risk question.
We will map the relevant Belief series, deliver a 90-day evaluation feed, and give your team the methodology and data dictionary needed to test it.
01
Name the live question
An election, conflict, policy, or regulatory event your team is already monitoring.
02
Test it in your workflow
Use the feed in a committee pack, dashboard, or note for 90 days.
03
Decide with evidence
Commercial terms only if the series earns a durable place in the process.