Belief Global Peace Expectations Index

This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.