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This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
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Belief Global Peace Expectations Index hit a new all-time high of 130.14, edging past the prior peak of 129.44. Lebanon's reopening of Qalaiat Airport and the Lebanese PM's calls for unified state authority suggest incremental stabilization, partially offsetting Iran's escalating friction with the IAEA over nuclear site oversight.
This index measures market-implied expectations of de-escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine-Russia, the China-Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under peace scenarios (ceasefire, diplomatic normalization, non-invasion, regime stability, non-proliferation, and alliance cohesion). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market's aggregate assessment of geopolitical de-escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived de-escalation as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.
Performance data as of Jun 9, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
This index is periodically rebalanced to keep tracking the most relevant, liquid prediction markets. Each event below records the markets added to the index – follow any market to view it on the live source.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.