Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 Index
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The Belief U.S. Legislative Control Democratic Expectations 2026 Index edged down to 104.85 from 105.22, continuing a narrow week-long oscillation. Trump's Hormuz resolution and Lebanon ceasefire moves offer no clear catalyst; the index remains rangebound.
This index measures market-implied expectations of Democratic control of the U.S. Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. It aggregates prices from a focused set of legislative outcome markets that resolve favorably under Democratic-aligned scenarios, specifically Democratic control of the House and Senate, while offsetting exposure to Republican control of each chamber. By synthesizing probabilities across both chambers, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of Democratic legislative control rather than the likelihood of any single chamber outcome in isolation. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived Democratic strength as political conditions evolve, including presidential approval trends, economic conditions, candidate quality, fundraising, and historical midterm dynamics.
Performance data as of Apr 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
Important Information
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.