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This index measures market-implied expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of restrictive Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USDOVE, which measures the inverse expectation.
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Theoretical index level – midpoint-based, before fees, spreads, and slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Belief U.S. Monetary Policy Hawkish Stance Index fell 8.6% to 136.31, its sharpest single-day decline in the tracked period. Trump's Venezuela oil deal, framed as a major supply expansion that would lower gasoline prices, eased inflation pressure and reduced the case for sustained Fed restrictiveness.
This index measures market-implied expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy stance by aggregating across multiple binary outcomes from underlying prediction markets. Constituent questions cover cumulative rate-cut occurrence over the calendar year, single-meeting decision outcomes, depth-of-cycle threshold pricing on the federal funds lower bound, and tail-risk active tightening. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of restrictive Fed policy across these dimensions, not point predictions of any single rate decision. The index is paired with USDOVE, which measures the inverse expectation.
Performance data as of Aug 31, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals the raw index value.
This index is periodically rebalanced to keep tracking the most relevant, liquid prediction markets. Each event below records the markets added to the index – follow any market to view it on the live source.
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.