Belief Global Conflict Risk Escalation Expectations Index

This index measures market-implied expectations of escalation in global conflict risk. It aggregates prices from a diversified set of prediction markets across major conflict theaters — including the Middle East, Ukraine–Russia, the China–Taiwan Strait, and the wider Indo-Pacific — that resolve favorably under escalatory scenarios (invasion, kinetic military action, regime collapse, failure to reach ceasefire, nuclear proliferation, and alliance fracture). By synthesizing probabilities across multiple theaters and pathways, the index reflects the market’s aggregate assessment of geopolitical escalation rather than the likelihood of any single event. Movements in the index capture shifts in perceived escalation risk as conflicts, negotiations, alliance dynamics, and macro-political conditions evolve. As constituent markets resolve, new markets are added via the reconstitution process to keep the index thematically current.