Belief U.S. Macroeconomic Contraction Index
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Belief U.S. Macroeconomic Contraction Index launched at 101.00, up slightly from its 100.00 base at inception. No macro catalysts are directly evident from current headlines.
This index measures market-implied expectations of U.S. macroeconomic contraction by aggregating across multiple indicator markets, including recession probability, unemployment thresholds, inflation tail risk, and Federal Reserve policy outcomes. Index movements reflect changes in market-implied expectations of a hard-landing / contraction-phase U.S. macro environment, not point predictions of any single indicator. Constituents are weighted by event-level liquidity at basket creation and capped at 50% per market. As a perpetual index, new markets are added via reconstitution as constituents resolve.
Performance data as of Apr 25, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Contribution = weight × midpoint price. Total contribution equals Raw NAV.
Important Information
This index is provided for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Belief Systems does not operate an exchange or facilitate wagering. Index values are derived from prediction market prices, which reflect market participants' expectations rather than certainties, and are theoretical and non-executable. Past performance does not guarantee future results.