Belief U.S. Latin American Status Quo Expectations 2026 Index

This index measures market-implied expectations that the political status quo in Latin America will be preserved. It aggregates prices from the same focused set of prediction market contracts as its paired Intervention index, taking the inverse position on each: that current Latin American leaders remain in office, that the United States does not undertake military intervention in Cuba, Mexico, or Venezuela, and that no broader hemispheric regime change occurs. By combining the inverse positions across the same underlying constituents, the index reflects the aggregate market-implied probability of regional political continuity rather than the persistence of any single arrangement. Movements in the index capture shifts in market expectations as U.S. foreign policy posture, Venezuelan domestic conditions, and regional diplomatic developments evolve.