Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Not Rated · New
As of Oct 24, 2026Measured from Sep 24 to Oct 24, 2026
No grade is given. Too few days of data to start a grade.
A grade limit lowered this grade: C+ from trading evidence. That is the highest grade it can get until the limit lifts.
Some data was missing in this period, so no grade change can be confirmed until it recovers. Gaps are never filled in.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Not Rated · New
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Data-limited · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity · grade limit C+
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Not rated
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
Integrity
Not rated
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes(0)
ShowHide
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
No grade changes yet.
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- Not Rated · NewToo few days of data to start a grade.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- Data-limitedSome data was missing, and gaps are never filled in.
- Grade limits
- C+ from trading evidence (lowered this grade)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Trading activity was below the evidence threshold, or too few trades were observed to assess it. A C+ grade limit from trading evidence is on this record.
- Grade since
- –
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 1 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Sep 24 to Oct 24, 2026
- First observed
- Oct 23, 2026
- Last complete day
- Oct 24, 2026
- Data check codes
- inputs_unavailabletrade_coverage_gap
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0x3242b643a0452825cb80a26cf8b775a0fc4dc5b473a0923664f00fb88951ebc4:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0x3242b643a0452825cb80a26cf8b775a0fc4dc5b473a0923664f00fb88951ebc4
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- data_limited
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? Market Grade Not Rated (new).
- Episode:
- polymarket:0x3242b643a0452825cb80a26cf8b775a0fc4dc5b473a0923664f00fb88951ebc4:1
- Flags:
- inputs_unavailable, trade_coverage_gap
- Lifecycle:
- Not Rated · New
- Data status:
- Data-limited
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-10-24 · window 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-24
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0