Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
Belief Systems Market Grade
Not Rated · Near resolution
As of Nov 3, 2026Measured from Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
No grade is given. Neared its end before earning a grade.
Some data was missing in this period, so no grade change can be confirmed until it recovers. Gaps are never filled in.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Not Rated · Near resolution
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Data-limited · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Not rated
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
Integrity
Not rated
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes(1)
ShowHide
Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
Market near its end
Why
The market is close to its end, so its grade is frozen.
Dates and ID
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- Not Rated · Near resolutionNeared its end before earning a grade.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- Data-limitedSome data was missing, and gaps are never filled in.
- Grade limits
- C+ from trading activity (in force)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Little trading backed the quotes, or too few trades were seen to tell. The grade can be C+ at most.
- Grade since
- –
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 1 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Oct 4 to Nov 3, 2026
- First observed
- Nov 2, 2026
- Last complete day
- Nov 3, 2026
- Data check codes
- inputs_unavailabletrade_coverage_gap
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0x4a5d201034e112a45dddda6cca55f6342f33ff9c43ab7f3f5085fdfcf3f290a0:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0x4a5d201034e112a45dddda6cca55f6342f33ff9c43ab7f3f5085fdfcf3f290a0
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- data_limited
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? Market Grade Not Rated (near resolution).
- Episode:
- polymarket:0x4a5d201034e112a45dddda6cca55f6342f33ff9c43ab7f3f5085fdfcf3f290a0:1
- Flags:
- inputs_unavailable, trade_coverage_gap
- Lifecycle:
- Not Rated · Near resolution
- Data status:
- Data-limited
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-11-03 · window 2026-10-04 to 2026-11-03
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0