Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of 2026-10-22 · observations 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
Market Grades are in beta. Grades are live, and the methodology is being validated in public on a published schedule. Validation roadmap ↗
Grade of record
Grade pending · evidence accruing
We are collecting observations for this market. Grades will be published after the required launch checks are complete.
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
as of 2026-10-22
Liquidity and integrity
Liquidity
Trading depth, execution costs, and consistency.
Publishes its letter with the grade of record.
Integrity
Trading participation and the consistency of buy and sell quotes.
A screen for concentrated trading and disrupted books, not proof against manipulation. Distinct wallets do not establish distinct owners.
Publishes its letter with the grade of record.
Liquidity and integrity grades update daily using observations from the same 30-day window. Changes to the overall market grade are announced separately.
- Market status
- Building history
- Review
- No review in progress
- Data status
- pending
- Trading evidence
- Limited trading evidence
- Data observed
- full · 100%
Evidence and latest action
Trading evidence and grade limits
No letter of record. Grade limits publish with the letter.
Latest action
No rating action on this record yet.
Rating actions
Permanent. Superseded and corrected actions stay on the record.
No rating actions. The record opens with the first grade of record; every action after that is permanent.
History
Published grades over time · changes marked
No history yet. The chart opens once this market has more than one published grade of record.
Coverage distribution
835 markets under coverage · as of 2026-10-22
Grades use fixed criteria. A market’s grade does not depend on how other markets are graded.
No market carries a letter yet. The ladder and what each rung means are fixed in advance of the first grade.
The ladder is fixed – an A means the same capability in every period and on every venue. A plus or minus marks position within a band, not a different meaning. Not Rated sits off the ladder: it is a refusal to opine, not a low grade.
What each rung means
| Band | What it means |
|---|---|
| A | Very strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| B | Strong measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| C | Moderate measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| D | Weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| F | Very weak measured market quality overall. Liquidity, integrity, and any grade limits are reported separately. |
| NR | No opinion is offered on these markets. Not Rated is a refusal to opine, and never a position on the ladder. |
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Market Grades by Belief Systems
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Market Grade pending (evidence accruing; letters publish at launch)
- Episode
- polymarket:0x4d5a2c980a8d116c14db4307646bdf17067b422a7d8e5ed88ec20213b463efe0:1
- Flags
- none
- Lifecycle
- Building history
- Data status
- pending
- Review
- no Watch
- Trading evidence
- Limited trading evidence (T0) · grade limits publish with the letter
- Book coverage
- full · 100%
- As of
- 2026-10-22 · window 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
- Versions
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0
- Permalink
- https://beliefsystems.xyz/grades/polymarket/0x4d5a2c980a8d116c14db4307646bdf17067b422a7d8e5ed88ec20213b463efe0
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
Market Grades are unsolicited: no graded party requests, pays for, or previews a grade. Belief Systems holds no positions in graded markets.
A grade is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position, and is not a substitute for a user's own assessment.
Technical record and methodologyData coverage, grading rules, and identifiers for verification
Grade status
- Market status
- Building historyObservations are accumulating. No letter is published until enough history is available.
- Watch
- none
- Data status
- CurrentThe grade is computed on observations that met the coverage threshold.
- Grade limits
- pending
- Trading evidence
- Limited trading evidenceAPI category: T0Trading activity was below the evidence threshold, or too few trades were observed to assess it. A C+ grade limit applies in the calculation.
- Grade since
- n/a
Observation record
- Data observed
- full · 100%
- Observed days
- 5 / 30
- Observation period
- 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22
- Observation began
- 2026-08-18
- Last complete observations
- 2026-10-22
- Data check codes
- Codes identify checks that affected publication. Use these when comparing this record with the API.none
Identifiers and versions
- Market record identifier
- polymarket:0x4d5a2c980a8d116c14db4307646bdf17067b422a7d8e5ed88ec20213b463efe0:1Identifies this version of the market question. A material question change starts a separate record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market id
- 0x4d5a2c980a8d116c14db4307646bdf17067b422a7d8e5ed88ec20213b463efe0The venue's own identifier for this market; unique within the venue.
- Correction version
- 0
- Calculation status
- candidate
- Last confirmed action
- none
- Methodology
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
The covered universe
| Letter | Markets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| A+ | 0 | 0.0% |
| A | 0 | 0.0% |
| A- | 0 | 0.0% |
| B+ | 0 | 0.0% |
| B | 0 | 0.0% |
| B- | 0 | 0.0% |
| C+ | 0 | 0.0% |
| C | 0 | 0.0% |
| C- | 0 | 0.0% |
| D | 0 | 0.0% |
| F | 0 | 0.0% |
| NR | 835 | 100.0% |
Disclosures
Market Grades measure market quality – liquidity, integrity – not the likelihood of any outcome.
Market Grades are unsolicited: no graded party requests, pays for, or previews a grade. Belief Systems holds no positions in graded markets.
A grade is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position, and is not a substitute for a user's own assessment.