Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Belief Systems Market Grade
No grade yet
As of Oct 23, 2026Measured from Sep 23 to Oct 23, 2026
We publish a grade once this market has 30 days of observed data.
Grade limits apply: D from the weaker of liquidity and integrity, C+ from trading evidence.
Rates how well this market trades, from A+ (best) to F: how much you can trade near the price, and how many different traders take part. Not a forecast of the outcome.
- Market status
- Building history
- Under review
- No
- Data
- Current · 100% observed
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity · grade limit C+
Liquidity and integrity
The two measures behind the grade.
Liquidity
Shown with the grade
How easily the market trades: the depth of buy and sell quotes, the cost of a typical trade, and how steadily trading happens.
Integrity
Shown with the grade
How broad and orderly trading is: how many different traders take part, and how often quotes are missing, one-sided, or crossed.
It screens for concentrated trading. It is not proof that a market can’t be manipulated, since many accounts can belong to one trader.
Both are recalculated daily over the same 30-day period. The overall grade moves more slowly: a change has to hold before it counts.
Grade changes(0)
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Every change stays on the record, including corrected ones.
No grade changes yet.
Details and citationShowHide
The grade
- Market status
- Building historyStill collecting data for a grade.
- Under review
- No
- Data status
- CurrentEnough data was observed.
- Grade limits
- D from weaker component (in force)C+ from trading evidence (in force)
- Trading activity
- Limited trading activity (T0)Trading activity was below the evidence threshold, or too few trades were observed to assess it. A C+ grade limit from trading evidence is on this record.
- Grade since
- –
The data
- Data observed
- Full · 100%
- Days observed
- 17 of 30 needed
- Measured over
- Sep 23 to Oct 23, 2026
- First observed
- Oct 6, 2026
- Last complete day
- Oct 23, 2026
- Data check codes
- None
Identifiers and versions
- Record ID
- polymarket:0xeab5e759a35d841c311bd90ca8c3e58d960927ef2af53143e49e8293e8b5258d:1A change to what the market question means starts a new record.
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Market ID
- 0xeab5e759a35d841c311bd90ca8c3e58d960927ef2af53143e49e8293e8b5258d
- Correction
- Original
- Calculation status
- candidate
- Last confirmed change
- None
- Methodology version
- mg-1.2
- Calibration version
- mg-cal-1.0
Cite this grade
Market Grades by Belief Systems: Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Market Grade Provisional (seasoning; no letter published).
- Episode:
- polymarket:0xeab5e759a35d841c311bd90ca8c3e58d960927ef2af53143e49e8293e8b5258d:1
- Flags:
- none
- Lifecycle:
- Building history
- Data status:
- Current
- Under review:
- No
- Trading activity:
- Limited trading activity (T0) · grade limits D (weaker component), C+ (trading evidence)
- Book coverage:
- full · 100%
- As of:
- 2026-10-23 · window 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23
- Versions:
- mg-1.2 / mg-cal-1.0